A boring final and why FIFA should keep the third place game.

Ok, I would not comment the final apart to say that it was a very boring game that showed the limitations of Spain and saw Holland becoming a second Italy (cheating, faking, and fouling). Also, a symbol of the tournament, we saw very timid refereeing that killed the game. But that has been said hundred if not thousands of times since yesterday.

I will concentrate on the other game, the one that meant nothing, the one that was the best of the tournament. Germany-Uruguay had it all. It was a celebration of offensive football, both teams going for it all the time. Until the end they tried not to be boring and pushed. After Khedira’s goal, the Germans tried to control the ball and the game but were not able because Uruguay was throwing everything that them. They managed to get a free kick on the last action of the game and Forlan almost kicked it in, he hit the bar.

So one must asks himself the question why that game was better. Why did we saw two teams going full tilt at each other when in the final they were very timid? This is simple psychology. In the third place game, each team wants to win the game. Even if the coaches make bench players play, even if it is for the Golden Pineapple and even if both team are picking up after devastating defeats. Losing the game is of little or no consequences, there is little distinction between fourth place and not getting out of the group phase. So teams want to win and go at it with all their hearths.

In the final situation, stakes are so high that players go back to their old reflexes that have been hammered into them since they began to play the game. They do not want to win, they want not to lose. This is an important distinction. A team playing to win does all the moves necessary to maximize their chance to win the game, this include moves that, if not successful may result in a goal by the opposition. A team trying not to lose is on the other hand, minimizing the risks of seeing the other team score. Also they are looking not to be criticized, so they do what it is expected of them. Compare the ways Germany played in the semi against Spain and against Uruguay and you will see what I am talking about.

The Euro has abolished the third place game and rumor has it that FIFA is considering it. My hope is that things will stay as it is for the future and allow soccer fans to see the only game in which people are playing to win of all the World Cup.

And now they were 4….

I got to look at that positively, at least I got one semi right even if I was completely wrong fort he other one.

Holland vs Urugay

Urugay: They were not supposed to be there and they somehow managed to get there. They had an easy group, got South Korea, a defensive team perfect for their style and got lucky against Ghana. They are going to face a much better team with Holland and their best striker is suspended for the handball. Just to be clear, what Suarez did was the ONLY decision he could take. As one that always say that sports people are always taking the suboptimal decision I am not going to critize when one makes an optimal one. Suarez turned a 0% chance of victory into a 12,5% with this handball (Penalties are usually converted 75% of the time and let us assume that they had a 50/50 chance of winning on penalty). Gyan choose a very bad moment to miss and the other Ghanan were shooting like Pee-Wees. Finally, someone should have done his homework and tell Kinson that “El Loco” ALWAYS does that little lob. Their luck is going to run out.

Holland: kudos for beating Brazil but they are not playing pretty football. They are faking, complaining like Italians and lumbering through games like the late 1990s Germans. But they are effective and they win games. They should beat Urugay

Germany vs Spain

Spain: Another team that will run out of luck. They have been a shadow of their former self, where never seriously tested and have not shown that they are able to come back from 0-1. I do not buy into the “Torres can explode at anytime.” theory, the guy is hurt and Spain is a better side without him. This is a one track team, if you take out Villa they are unable to score. Their 1-0 win against a pathetic Portugal did not convinced anyone and their got lucky in the Paraguay game. Luck can only take you so far.

Germany: This team is VERY VERY VERY good and is going to be so for a long time, only 2 players were born in the 70s. They are the most tested team of the tournament and I was really impressed how they destroyed Argentina and how they clobbered Serbia with 10 men. I do not see how it can be beaten by anyone of the 3 other teams could beat them. But Paul does not agree with me.

Final World Cup Group Update

Group F
Italy: As usual, they will come through because they got an easy group and because no referee has the courage to punish them for their fakes and dives. I wish they would get the ref from the Germany-Australia game that gave 2 yellows for diving. They will beat Paraguay and unfortunately pass to the next round.

Paraguay: Played the best football of this group, only the unbelievable rally from the Kiwis robbed them of a sure place in the final round. Even with a loss to Italy they will advance on the next round.

New Zealand: I am rooting for them and I wish that they will pass to the next round. But realistically, I do not see them beating Slovakia. They lack the offensive punch. But I will be very happy to be wrong.

Slovakia: Pathetic showing for this team. They are a shadow of their qualification self.

Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia

Group G
Brazil: I am still worried since without the handball, the game against Ivory Coast would have been a lot closer. They did not show their usual dominance, but they did what they needed to qualify.

Portugal: They revealed themselves and North Korea for what they were. They had fun in that last game and looked good. They are starting to build up momentum, if they can beat Brazil, they are going to be the team to beat in the final round.

Ivory Coast: Sad, they still have a mathematical chance but will most likely play only for pride.

North Korea: If I was a player for that team I would start to think about defecting. They looked good against Brazil but Portugal revealed them for what they are: a team that does not belong there.

Brazil
Portugal
Ivory Coast
North Korea

Group H
Spain: Looks like they are now starting to play for real. Nice trashing of Honduras, there is just too much talent in that team and they need the win.

Chile: Is under pressure not to lose to avoid Brazil, but the alternative, Portugal, is not much better. Even a 0-1 loss would give them the top to the group. Unfortunately, they will probably lose by 2 goals to Spain.

Switzerland: Played well, but they do not have enough offense to get what they need to qualify (a 3 goals difference win and a Chile defeat). But anything is possible since this group turned out to be the group of death.

Honduras: Outclassed by everyone, practically eliminated.

Spain
Chile
Switzerland
Honduras

World Cup update - Groups D and E

Group D
Germany: Were the victim of very bad refereeing but they have only themselves to blame for the loss. They had a lot of opportunities to tie it and failed to capitalize on it. They were really impressive with 10 men against Serbia. Be afraid, this team is very very good. Needs to win against Ghana to advance.

Serbia: Got lucky against Germany but have proven that they are as good as expected. Needs to win against Australia. Should be able to do it.

Ghana: Yes they are leading the group, but a loss to Germany and a Serbian win would kick them out. Unfortunately, this is the most likely scenario. They struggled against a 10 men Socceroo squad when Germany destroyed them. Their defense is just not up to the task of shutting down the Germans.

Australia: 2 red cards spoiled their tournament. They have shown great thing against Ghana, but they need to win by a lot of goals against Serbia and they do not have the players to do it.

Germany
Serbia
Ghana
Australia

Group E
Holland: The dutch did not show anything impressive but they won 2 games. They make me think of the 1990s German team, they find a way to win 1-0. Should be able to qualify playing against an eliminated Cameroon.

Japan: They need not to lose against Denmark. I was disappointed by the pre-world cup performance of the team, but they are playing well right now.

Denmark: Played a good game against Cameroon but Japan is a better team right now and needs only not to lose. I however, would not bet on the result of this last game.

Cameroon: I am disappointed since they have shown great things against Denmark. Are now eliminated and will probably get hammered by Holland

Holland
Japan
Denmark
Cameroon

World Cup Update - Group C

Slovenia
Shown that it was a team, played well and is now in the driver seat of that Group. Need just not to lose to England to survive.

England
Played 2 horrible games. It is a collection of individuals. Needs to beat Slovenia to advance or a draw and help. There is too much talent in that team for it not to win that last game.

USA
They showed today that they are a legitimate team. This comeback was incredible. Needs to beat Algeria to advance, they could do it.

Algeria
Good game against England, they need to win and help from Slovenia to have a chance to survive.

Group C
England
USA
Slovenia
Algeria

World Cup update

OK, just one game to play in groups A and B, lets see what we learned.

Group A
We knew that France was bad but not that bad! They played 2 horrible games being incapable of generating offense. They now need to destroy South Africa 4-0 and a close win from either Mexico or Uruguay. I do not see them being able to do it.

The Vuvuzela advantage was not enough for the Bafana Bafana. They came close to win against Mexico, but just got outclassed by Uruguay.

Mexico should come through, but I do not like their chances of going far in the tournament since they have been inconsistent so far

Uruguay will finish first of this group and they have deserved it.

Uruguay
Mexico
France
South Africa

Group B
Argentina. They are legit, it took them a little bit of time to wake up but they are worthy to be considered a favorite to win the tournament. They will take first place in that group.

South Korea. Have the best chance to finish second. They should win against Nigeria. Although they got destroyed by Argentina they dominated Greece and should beat Nigeria.

Greece. They still have a chance but they got to beat Argentina. You never know with that team. They were awful until the red card in the Nigeria game.

Nigeria. I am not surprised, this team is highly dysfunctional. They should lose badly to South Korea.

Argentina
South Korea
Greece
Nigeria

World Cup 2010 Bracket

OK, here is a cheat sheet for you North Americans that know nothing about soccer but wants not to look like complete idiots around the water cooler for the following month.

Group Results

Group A
France
South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay

France got very lucky with that draw, they should sail through the group stage without problems. Here the logical second place should be Mexico, but because of the advantage of playing at home, that is historically 1 goal per game, I give the Bafanas Bafanas a place in the final round

Group B
Argentina
Greece
South Korea
Nigeria

Maradona’s men seem to have found their way. There is just too much talent in that team not to sail through this group even if it is the official Group of Death of this World Cup. Again I see an upset with Greece making it over South Korea and Nigeria since these are two teams that are very vulnerable to “Germinised” system of Greece.

Group C
England
Slovenia
USA
Algeria

Again the favorite should sail through. I have Slovenia and the USA neck to neck but Slovenia got in the World Cup over Russia and will field the same squad as during the qualification round.

Group D
Germany
Australia
Ghana
Serbia

Yes Ballack and three others are out with injuries, but there is too much depth in German football and the coach is too good. Expect a though first game against Australia. As for Ghana and Serbia their recent performances were less than convincing.

Group E
Holland
Danemark
Kameroun
Japan

Holland will sail though. The recent performances of Japan are pathetic, therefore Danemark should make it to the final round.

Group F
Italy
Slovakia
Paraguay
New Zealand

Again, an easy group for the Europeans.

Group G
Brazil
Portugal
Ivory Coast
North Korea

I do not see how Ivory Coast can survive with a less than a 100% fit Drogba. North Korea is the big unknown in that group, but with a second rate Ivory Coast it should not be enough to mix things up.

Group H
Spain
Switzerland
Chile
Honduras

Unless Chile finds a way to play better than during their qualification campaign and recent friendly, they will not be able to beat the better organized Swiss.

Final Round

Sweet Sixteen

1. Greece over France – the pathetic showing of France and the easy group will come back to haunt them. Greece will win in injury time or on penalties.

2. England over Australia – The Socceroos are just not there yet. They could beat a second tier country, but not England, unless the Lions chose this game to choke.

3. Argentina over South African – Even with the bonus of playing at home, this is too big a bite for the Bafanas Bafanas to chew.

4. Germany over Slovenia – Germany is much better than Russia, no hope for Slovenia.

5. Holland over Slovakia – The dutch always bring their A-game to the World Cup

6. Brazil over Switzerland – Samba beats banks every time. Do I need to say more?

7. Italy over Danemark – I hate the Italians, but the Danes can’t do it this year.

8. Spain over Portugal – This is the toughest one, Spain is overrated in my opinion but I was disappointed by Portugal. But with Christiano Ronaldo leading the way anything can happen if there is one player that can reverse the course of a game, it is him.

Elite Eight

1. Greece over England – This is the game that the Lions will choose to play horrible football, let a soft goal in or take a stupid red card. They do that at every World Cup and this one will be no exception. Or they will just play it a little too safe, end up in penalty shooting and loose as usual.

2. Germany over Argentina – Rematch of 2006. Germany has the better overall squad, Argentian got the better individual talent, Germany got the better coach and will be better prepared. Will be one of the best game of the tournament.

3. Brazil over Holland – Again, not much to add. The Dutch could win it, but they would need a crappy game from Brazil and quite a bit of luck.

4. Spain over Italy – Overated, but too good to contain with boring defensive football. There is no way you can play defensive football and win against Spain. Germany tried it in the Euro 2008, did it very well but lost.

Final Four

1. Germany over Greece – The Cinderella team will meet its match. Germany is another team that you can always count on, they will smell blood. It will be the most boring match of the final round.

2. Brazil over Spain – The weakness of Spain will be exposed violently by the Brazilians. You got to score more goals to win.


Third place match

Spain over Greece – Playing for no stakes, the Greeks will get destroyed by the B team of Spain

Final

Germany over Brazil – Brazil will not be able to take on the new offensive type of football that the Germans will bring to South Africa. Özil and Kroos will flood the midfield, Cacau and Podolski will give nightmare to the defenders, draw free kicks and Germany will socre on set pieces. I know that it goes again the logical choice, but allow me to make my only partisan choice of the bracket.

Try to have fun and to pretend that 1-0 is an exciting result.

Il faut pas partir avant la fin

Une publicité géniale qui explique pourquoi il faut pas partir avant la fin d'un game de hockey. Je me demande si Youppi est capable de faire la même job.

Craptastic!!!!

Après une longue disette voici le retour des films "Craptastics". Les films tellement mauvais qu'ils sont géniaux.

Il y a deux genres de films Craptastics: ceux qui le savent pas (Commando, toute l'oeuvre de Steven Segal) et ceux qui s'assument (Le Roi Scorpion, Terminator 3, Le Retour de la Mommie).

En voici un qui le sait:



Et un qui le sait probablement pas:



Mais c'est l'fun de voir que la tradition continue.

Top 5 Livres 2009

Et voici la seconde partie du top 5 2009



5 La chute de Saigon – Oliver Todd
Excellent récit avec une très bonne autocritique du rôle des médias et leur tentative d’être objectif. Todd était journaliste sur place au moment de la fin de la guerre du Vietnam. Avec le recul on se rend compte que les médias occidentaux étaient clairement manipulés par les Nord Vietnamiens. Très bonne lecture pour mettre l’Iraq et l’Afghanistan en perspective.

4 The autobiography of Malcolm X – Malcolm X avec Alex Hailey
Lecture obligatoire pour comprendre cette figure importante des années 50 et 60. Polémiste, mystique et agitateur, X nous parle directement sans mâcher ses mots et vous force à réfléchir sur notre perception des relations raciales. Ce n’est absolument pas « politically correct » et j’ai adoré ça. Le livre nous permet aussi de voir l’évolution de sa pensée quand il découvre vraiment l’Islam. Je ne suis demandé tout le long ce qu’il aurait à dire sur Obama.

3 Watchmen - Alan Moore, illustré par Dave Gibbons
La meilleure bande dessinée de tout les temps. Malgré la critique de Dark Bebitte sur la qualité des dessins (« Y sont à chier »), c’est difficile de trouver une bande dessinée avec un scénario plus complexe. Une histoire de Super Héros qui n’ont rien de supers, ni d’héroïques. On découvre que le fanatisme ne paie pas et on ne peut pas faire d’omelettes sans casser des œufs. J’avais deviné le « punch » mais ça n’a pas gâché mon plaisir.

2 The White Road – John Connolly
Encore une fois, le style superbe the Connolly rend la lecture très divertissante. À titre d’exemple: « If little John ever wanted to take a bath, the water would quit in protest ». Moins de mystique et fantastique que dans Dark Hollow (qui est encore le meilleur de la série) mais un récit historique intéressant sur les liens malsains qui existent encore aujourd’hui entre les descendants d’esclaves et de propriétaires dans le sud des USA. Pour ceux qui suivent la série, les passages les plus intéressants portent sur l’origine d’Angel et sa rencontre avec son partenaire Louis « the only living six foot seven, clean shaven, black gay Republican ».

1 The Innocent Man: Murder and Injustice in a Small Town – John Grisham
L’histoire troublante et pathétique d’un joueur de baseball des ligues mineures faussement accusé et condamné pour meurtre. L’histoire classique d’un mauvais travail de la police, des procureurs et de l’avocat de la défense. Seulement la chance et l’ADN ont réussi à la disculper. Superbement écrit et se lit comme un roman de Grisham, on ne veut pas le lâcher. Un vrai triller qui garde même les avocats blasés en haleine. À faire lire à tous les partisans de la peine de mort. Difficile d’être en faveur après avoir lu ce livre.

Top 5 films de 2009

La tradition annuelle est de retour


5 No country for old men


Le livre est bien meilleur. C’est cependant meilleur que 95% les films standards d’Hollywood. C’est le livre mis en image et c’est probablement ça qui m’a tanné car le film dans notre tête est toujours meilleur (dans le mien, Chigur était chauve). Javier Bardem fait un très bon psychopathe. Attention si vous tenez à l’écouter en anglais, l’accent du sud rend certains personnages quasi incompréhensibles.

4 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind



Enfin une comédie romantique intelligente sur les peines d’amour et tout ce quelqu'un est prêt à faire pour passer par-dessus. Le traitement est intéressant, un bon film d’anticipation « soft ». Jim Carrey prouve encore une fois qu’il est capable d’être un acteur sérieux, quand on lui donne le matériel pour le faire.


3 Taxi to the dark side


Un superbe documentaire sur le drame d’un chauffeur de taxi afghan qui se trouve au mauvais endroit au mauvais moment et qui se ramasse à Guantanamo. C’est remplis de révélations troublantes qui nous font repenser qui sont les bons et les méchants dans cette guerre contre le terrorisme.



2 Little Miss Sunshine


Un film absurde et débile sur le monde absurde et débile des concours de beauté pour enfants. Les acteurs sont superbes, les dialogues réalistes, les personnages attachants et pleins de défauts. À écouter en famille pour apprécier les parallèles avec la famille dysfonctionnelle d’Olive. Ma découverte fut Steve Carrel, un acteur comique, dans le rôle de l’oncle prof d’université gay et dépressif. Il nous fait rire, mais tout en subtilité. Son monologue sur Proust et la souffrance est à la fois très drôle et très philosophique.

1 The Prestige


Un film dans la tradition d’Edgar Alan Poe sur la rivalité malsaine et destructrice entre deux magiciens dans le Londres de la fin de la période victorienne. Réalisé par Christopher Nolan (Momento, Batman) avec une distribution en béton (Michael Kane, Hugh Jackman, Christian Bale). Je n’ai pas venu voir un des punchs de la fin même si tous les indices étaient là. Le film est tellement prenant qu’on a pas vraiment le temps de penser à ça. J’ai aussi été déconcentré par l’apparition d’un de mes personnages historique préféré (1 morceau de robot pour le nom). C’est vraiment à voir.

P = MC Yo!

What would happen if Keynes and Hayek would have been rappers and not economists.



I like that a lot! Sounds like Eminem

Should be compulsary for every economy undergrad.